Grading Our Predictions.
Well, now that the election is over and the AP has called all the states, let’s see how we Government teachers did on our predictions.
As to whether the House would be in Democrat or Republican hands after the votes, only 9 percent of the teachers said the GOP would take back the House. The remaining 91 correctly called that Democrats would maintain the lower chamber. It is true that Republicans have so far gained 7 seats, mostly in districts where Trump was rather popular, but the AP currently has the House standing at Democrats with 219, Republicans with 203, and a few elections not totally called. Among other things, key reasons included “Suburbs are Realigning.”
The Senate race, a much more even contest, yielded a balance of guesses among our participants. The same number of Government teachers, 42 percent, predicted Republicans and Dems would take the majority. The remaining 16 percent thought there would be a tie. Now, it stands at Republicans with 50 members and Democrats with 48, yet, this is still up in the air because if Republicans win either of the two Georgia seats requiring a run-off election, they will have a majority. If the Dems pull off a double upset in the evolving Georgia, vice president-elect Kamala Harris will eventually cast the tie-breaking vote in determining leadership and committee arrangements.
Eighty-three percent of those surveyed thought Biden would win the presidency, while 17 percent predicted Trump. Presuming no recount will change any electoral votes, Biden has won the presidency 306 to 232. In the Electoral College prediction, Layla James was closest with 300 to 238.
As of Nov. 15 in the morning, Biden has 78, 662,167 (51 percent) of the popular vote, and Trump has won 72,936,343 (47.3 ) total votes nationwide.
The votes for minor parties only reached 1.7 percent. Our average guess was 3.45 percent. We were largely guessing the minor party candidates would get fewer votes than last time. Which was 4.9 percent to Gary Johnson and company. Matt Hubacher came the closest this time with 2.5 percent.
Thanks for participating.